HYPOTHESIS ( Sociology Optional)

Introduction

  • A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon.
  • For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it.
  • A hypothesis is a statement that introduces a research question and proposes an expected result. It is an integral part of the scientific method.
  • A research hypothesis is a specific, clear, and testable proposition or predictive statement about the possible outcome of a scientific research.

PYQs: Hypothesis

  • Write short note: A good hypothesis. (97/20)
  • संक्षिप्त टिप्पणी लिखें: एक अच्छी परिकल्पना। (97/20)
  • Write short note: importance and sources of hypotheses in social research. (08/20)
  • संक्षिप्त टिप्पणी लिखें: सामाजिक अनुसंधान में परिकल्पनाओं का महत्व और स्रोत। (08/20)
  • “Hypothesis is a statement of the relationship between two or more variables.” Elucidate by giving examples of poverty and illiteracy.” (16/10)
  • "परिकल्पना दो या दो से अधिक चर के बीच संबंध का एक विवरण है। गरीबी और निरक्षरता के उदाहरण देकर स्पष्ट कीजिए । (16/10)
  • Discuss the importance and sources of hypothesis in social research. (2020/10)
  • सामाजिक अनुसंधान में परिकल्पना के महत्व और स्रोतों पर चर्चा करें। (2020/10)

Thinkers’ Perspective

  • Goode and Hatt have defined it as “a proposition which can be put to test to determine its validity”.
  • According to Lundberg, “A hypothesis is a tentative generalisation, the validity of which remains to be tested. In its most elementary stage, the hypothesis may be any hunch, guess, imaginative idea, which becomes the basis for action or investigation”.
  • A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research, in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. – Hilborn and Marc, 1997.
  • In general, we look for a new law by the later processes. First, we guess it. – Richard Feynman, 1965

Nature of Hypothesis

The hypothesis is a clear statement of what is intended to be investigated. It should be specified before research is conducted and openly stated in reporting the results. This allows to:

  • Identify the research objectives.
  • Identify the key abstract concepts involved in the research.
  • Identify its relationship to both the problem statement and the literature review
  • A problem cannot be scientifically solved unless it is reduced to hypothesis form.
  • It is a powerful tool of advancement of knowledge, consistent with existing knowledge and conducive to further enquiry.
  • It can be tested – verifiable or falsifiable.
  • Hypotheses are not moral or ethical questions.
  • It is neither too specific nor too general.
  • It is a prediction of consequences.
  • It is considered valuable even if proven false.

Types of Hypotheses

There are several types of hypothesis, but some of the common and important types are explained below.

Research Hypothesis or Scientific Hypothesis

  • It is a statement about the expected outcome of a scientific study. For example, a dissertation or thesis.
  • For a hypothesis to be a genuine research hypothesis, it needs to have three attributes – specificity, testability and falsifiability.
  • Simple research hypothesis: It depicts the relationship between two variables, one of which is known as the independent variable or ‘cause' and the other as the dependent variable or ‘effect.'
  • Complex research hypothesis: It has multiple dependent and independent variables.

Research Hypothesis are classified as being directional or non-directional.

Directional Hypotheses:

  • These are usually derived from theory.
  • They may imply that the researcher is intellectually committed to a particular outcome.
  • They specify the expected direction of the relationship between variables i.e. the researcher predicts not only the existence of a relationship but also its nature.

Non-directional Hypotheses

  • Used when there is little or no theory, or when findings of previous studies are contradictory.
  • They may imply impartiality. It do not stipulate the direction of the relationship.

Associative and causal Hypotheses

Associative Hypotheses

  • An associative hypothesis defines the relationship and interdependency between variables.
  • For example, an associative hypothesis predicts that a change in one variable will result in a change of the other variable. 

Causal Hypothesis

  • It propose a cause and effect interaction between two or more variables.
  • The independent variable is manipulated to cause effect on the dependent variable.
  • The dependent variable is measured to examine the effect created by the independent variable.

Statistical Hypothesis

  • To test whether the data support or refute the research hypothesis, it needs to be translated into a statistical hypothesis.
  • It is statement about one or more parameters that are measures of the population under study.
  • Inferential statistics is used for drawing conclusions about population values.
  • To use inferential statistics, we need to translate the research hypothesis into a testable form, which is called the null hypothesis.
  • A testable hypothesis contains variables that are measurable or able to be manipulated. They need to predict a relationship that can be 'supported' or 'not supported' based on data collection and analysis.

Null Hypothesis

  • These are used when the researcher believes there is no relationship between two variables or when there is inadequate theoretical or empirical information to state a research hypothesis.
  • Null hypotheses can be:
    • Simple or complex
    • Associative or causal

The Alternative Hypothesis

  • It is also referred to as a sustained hypothesis or a research hypothesis.
  • To begin, numerous hypotheses are proposed.
  • The most efficient one is then chosen from among them.
  • It is opposite of Null Hypothesis. Frequently “alternative” is actual desired conclusion of the researcher.
  • Some hypotheses are concerned with complex ideal types. For example, land values, industrial concentrations, types of businesses, ethnic groups, and many other phenomena are not easy to explain using one hypothesis.
  • One such hypothesis was Ernest W. Burgess’s ‘idea of concentric growth circles that characterize the city’. This hypothesis was then tested in a number of cities. It was found that the actual pattern of city growth is not like this, hence alternative hypotheses were proposed, like multiple nuclei model, sectoral or wedge growth model.
  • A similar type of hypothesis is seen in analysis of minority groups. Logical analysis then led to the hypothesis that these uniformities produced an ideal type. This was at first called by A. Miller the “oppression psychosis” but it was subsequently modified to the “marginal man” by E.W.Stonequist. Empirical evidence supported the hypothesis and thus the "marginal man" is today also a part of sociological theory.

Logical hypothesis

  • It is logically verified, as the name implies.
  • The verification process entails the following steps:
    • Agreement
    • Disagreement
    • Different points of view

Empirical hypothesis

  • It is also known as a 'working hypothesis.'
  • During the formulation phase, it is only an assumption, but once tested, it is no longer just an idea or notion.
  • It is actually changing in relation to those independent variables.

Characteristics of A Good Hypothesis

Hulley says a good hypothesis must be based on a good research question. It should be simple, specific and stated in advance.

Hence, a hypothesis could be called as a good hypothesis if it possesses the following characteristics:

  • Hypothesis should be simple so that it is easily understood by everyone.
  • Hypothesis should be clear, specific and precise. If the hypothesis is not clear and precise, the inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken as reliable.
  • Hypothesis should be capable of being tested.
  • Hypothesis should state relationship between variables.
  • Hypothesis should be consistent with most known facts. i.e. it must be consistent with a substantial body of established
  • The hypothesis must explain the facts that gave rise to the need for explanation. It must actually explain what it claims to explain.

Problems in formulating hypothesis

  • Absence of a clear theoretical framework
  • Lack of ability to utilize that theoretical framework logically
  • Failure to be acquainted with available research techniques.

Sources of Hypothesis

General culture

  • Major cultural values and folk wisdom serves as important source of hypotheses.
  • For example, in Western society, race is considered to be an important determinant of human behaviour.
  • In the words of Goode and Hatt, “to say that the hypotheses are the product of the cultural values, does not make them scientifically less important.”

Previous study

  • Previous knowledge and information regarding the topic of hypothesis will be extremely helpful to create a concrete hypothesis.

Scientific theory

  • It would be extremely helpful to use scientific theories in hypothesis because it is capable of explaining all the facts related to the investigation.
  • Theory gives direction to research by stating what is known. Logical deduction from this leads to new problems.

Analogies

  • Julian Huxley has pointed out that casual observations in nature or in the framework of another science may be a fertile source of hypotheses.
  • Social physics hypothesis is based on analogy that if people are related in some way similar to the structure of such a physical field, then human behaviour should show reliable correlation with such a field analysis.
  • However, it is dangerous to assume that “demographic potential" is the same phenomenon as "gravitational potential" in physics.
  • The use of analogy as a source of hypotheses is not without its dangers of course. There is reason to suspect any analogy from another science.

Thinking and imagination

  • A researcher's creative thinking and imagination can sometimes aid in the formulation of a good hypothesis.

Personal or idiosyncratic experiences

  • Perceptions are structured by experience, producing odd and interesting illusions.
  • Any personal experience regarding the topic of investigation can be used in the hypothesis to make it more complete and good quality.
  • An illustration of individual perspective in the social sciences may be seen in the work of Thorstein Veblen. He was himself a kind of outsider or marginal man. He was thus in an excellent position to attack the fundamental concepts and postulates of classical economics. As a result, he made penetrating analyses of our society.

Significance of hypothesis

  • It facilitates the extension of knowledge in an area.
  • It enables the researcher to relate logically known facts to intelligent guesses about unknown conditions.
  • It provides direct on to the research.
  • It provides a basis to the researcher for selecting sample and statistical techniques.
  • It provides the basis for reporting the conclusions of the study.