PSIR 2c. How does the regime change and political crisis in Myanmar threaten regional security and peace? UPSC 2023, 15 Marks
Myanmar's political crisis poses a multifaceted threat to regional security and peace. The risk of violence spreading across borders, economic disruptions, a potential refugee crisis, and geopolitical tensions all contribute to the instability. Regional actors and international organizations must address the crisis collectively to mitigate its impact on regional stability.
Introduction
Myanmar's recent regime change and political crisis have significant implications not only for the country itself but also for regional security and peace. This is particularly relevant given Myanmar's strategic location in Southeast Asia. Below, we discuss how the crisis threatens regional security:
1. Escalation of Violence and Humanitarian Crisis
The coup in Myanmar has led to widespread protests and violent crackdowns by the military.
Escalating violence and a growing humanitarian crisis, with thousands displaced and numerous casualties, pose immediate regional stability concerns.
2. Potential for Spillover Conflicts
Instability in Myanmar could spill over into neighboring countries like Thailand, India, Bangladesh, and China.
Cross-border conflicts, refugee influxes, and territorial disputes could emerge, straining relations and regional stability.
3. Impact on Regional Trade and Economy
Myanmar is a crucial part of regional economic networks, including the ASEAN Economic Community.
Political instability and sanctions could disrupt trade routes and investments, affecting the economic stability of neighboring countries.
4. Refugee Crisis
A protracted crisis in Myanmar could lead to a refugee crisis, as seen during the Rohingya exodus in 2017.
Neighboring countries would bear the burden of hosting refugees, potentially leading to social and security challenges.
5. Geopolitical Tensions
Myanmar's political crisis has attracted international attention, with major powers taking different positions.
Geopolitical rivalries, such as China's influence in Myanmar and Western sanctions, can exacerbate tensions and destabilize the region.
6. Erosion of ASEAN's Credibility
ASEAN's reputation as a regional conflict resolver is at stake due to its inability to effectively mediate the crisis.
The crisis undermines ASEAN's role in regional security and diplomacy.
7. Impact on Transnational Issues
Myanmar plays a role in addressing transnational challenges like human trafficking and drug trade.
Political turmoil could hinder regional cooperation in addressing these issues.
Conclusion
Myanmar's political crisis poses a multifaceted threat to regional security and peace. The risk of violence spreading across borders, economic disruptions, a potential refugee crisis, and geopolitical tensions all contribute to the instability. Regional actors and international organizations must address the crisis collectively to mitigate its impact on regional stability.