The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region? (250 words) (UPSC GS 3 2023/15 marks)

Introduction

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report has issued a dire warning, predicting a global sea level rise of approximately one meter by AD 2100 due to climate change. This forecast poses a significant threat to countries in the Indian Ocean region, which are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Impacts on India and Other Countries in Indian Ocean Region (IOR)

1. Coastal Erosion:

   - Rising sea levels will accelerate coastal erosion, threatening the stability of shorelines, beaches, and coastal infrastructure.

   - In India, increased erosion in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu threatens coastal areas.

   - The Maldives' numerous islands are at risk, impacting tourism and livelihoods.

2. Displacement of Populations:

   - Low-lying coastal areas and islands will become uninhabitable, displacing millions of people in countries like the Maldives, Bangladesh, and parts of India and Sri Lanka.

   - In India, vulnerable populations in West Bengal and Mumbai may be forced to move.

   - Coastal regions in Bangladesh, like Khulna and Barisal, will experience mass displacement.

3. Loss of Agricultural Land:

   - Coastal farmlands and fertile deltas will be inundated, reducing food production and livelihoods for communities in countries like Bangladesh and India.

   - In India, the fertile Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in West Bengal and Bangladesh will see agricultural land loss.

   - Sri Lanka's northern coastal areas, known for rice cultivation, will suffer land loss.

4. Infrastructure Damage:

   - Critical infrastructure such as ports, airports, roads, and power facilities will be at risk of damage or inundation, affecting transportation and economic activities.

   - Coastal infrastructure could face damage across IOR, including India. E.g. Mumbai ports, Chittagong.

5. Increased Flooding:

   - Higher sea levels will exacerbate flooding during monsoon seasons, causing extensive damage to homes and infrastructure in India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.

   - Coastal cities like Mumbai, Colombo and Male will experience more frequent and severe flooding.

6. Saltwater Intrusion:

   - Rising sea levels can lead to saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources, impacting drinking water supplies and agriculture in coastal regions.

   - In India, coastal aquifers in Gujarat and West Bengal may suffer from saltwater intrusion, impacting drinking water.

   - Maldives' freshwater resources on islands will be threatened by saltwater intrusion.

7. Threat to Biodiversity:

   - Coastal ecosystems, including mangroves and coral reefs, will be under threat, affecting fisheries and biodiversity in the region.

   - The Sundarbans mangrove forest, home to the Bengal tiger, will be at risk.

   - IOR: Coral reefs in the Seychelles and the Chagos Archipelago will face bleaching and degradation.

8. Economic Impact:

   - The Indian Ocean region is a hub for trade and commerce; sea level rise can disrupt shipping routes, affecting trade and economic stability.

   - Major ports like Mumbai, Colombo and in Africa, key regional transshipment hubs, will be affected, impacting regional economies.

9. Security Concerns:

   - Climate-induced migration and resource scarcity can lead to conflicts and security challenges in the region, affecting regional stability.

   - India: Climate-induced migration may lead to resource conflicts in regions like Assam.

   - The competition for limited resources among Indian Ocean countries could escalate, leading to security challenges.

10. Adaptation Measures: Countries will need to invest in costly adaptation measures, such as sea walls, embankments, and climate-resilient infrastructure, to mitigate the impact of rising sea levels, putting additional strain on their budgets.

   - The countries across IOR will need to build resilient infrastructure and explore innovative solutions to protect their islands.

Conclusion

The predicted sea level rise poses a grave threat to the countries in the Indian Ocean region. Urgent action is required, both at the regional and global levels, to mitigate the effects of rising sea levels and to build resilient communities and infrastructure. The international community must work collaboratively to address climate change and protect the vulnerable nations of the Indian Ocean region from the impending crisis.