Russia-Ukraine conflict Two years on | UPSC Mains Current Affaris

Why in news:

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to be in the news due to its impact on European security, global geopolitics, and the potential for escalation into a larger conflict involving other major powers. The recent capture of Avdiivka by Russian forces has brought renewed attention to the conflict.

About Russia-Ukraine conflict Two years on:

Advantage Putin:

• The conflict has reached a point where it is advantage Putin, with Russia making strategic gains on the battlefield.
• The war has shifted from a war of manoeuvre to a war of attrition, with Russia grinding down Ukrainian capabilities.
• Russia's military advantage is not irreversible, but Ukraine's position has weakened progressively.

International Context:

• Ukraine's position has weakened due to a lack of external support, with the US Congress holding up a significant assistance package for Ukraine.
• The conflict has impacted global energy, food, and financial linkages, with repercussions in regions such as Africa and North Korea.
• The conflict has highlighted sharp gaps in NATO defense stockpiles and industrial capacities.

Implications for Global Security:

• The conflict has led to a fraying of deterrence equations between major powers, creating a disequilibrium on the Eurasian continent.
• China stands to benefit from the confusion in America's global strategy and the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West.
• The conflict has the potential to lead to a new dark age of unbridled arms competition, with traditional arms control measures almost dead.

Call for Resolution:

• Partial battlefield gains do not equate to lasting gains at the negotiating table, highlighting the need for a comprehensive and inclusive approach to resolving the conflict.
• Trans-Atlantic security cannot be built on the ashes of global insecurity, emphasizing the importance of finding a way to include Russia in European security arrangements.
• A prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict is not in India's interests, as it weakens Russia, undercuts European security, and complicates US global rebalancing efforts.

Challenges:

• Russia's military advantage and superior resources are grinding down Ukrainian capabilities.
• Ukraine's position has weakened progressively due to external support dependency.
• Deep domestic divisions in the US Congress have delayed assistance packages for Ukraine.
• Stalemate on the battlefield and military leadership changes have added to Western capitals' sense of gloom.
• Sharp gaps in NATO defence stockpiles and industrial capacities have been exposed.
• Global energy, food, and financial linkages have been impacted by the conflict.
• The conflict has led to a resurgence in Russia-North Korea relations and undercut French influence in the Sahel region.
• Arms control efforts have been hindered, leading to a potential new era of unbridled arms competition.

Way Forwards:

• Both parties should consider a lasting settlement that includes Russia in European security.
• Western allies should find a way to reconstruct European security that involves Russia.
• The US and its European allies should pull back from the brink and prioritize common sense in resolving the conflict.
• NATO states should work towards filling gaps in defence stockpiles and industrial capacities.
• Ukraine should focus on immediate security requirements while seeking long-term solutions.
• Global powers should address the impact of the conflict on energy, food, and financial linkages.